FYI: Tesla CEO Elon Musk forecasts the arrival of unsupervised Full Self-Driving by the end of this year, with a more definite launch in 2024.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk claims that unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) could become a reality by the end of the year, though he hedges with a certainty for next year. This familiar optimistic timeline was revisited during Tesla’s second-quarter earnings call this Tuesday, with Musk suggesting that the milestone might be achieved in the next five months—possibly.
### Musk’s History with FSD Timelines
Musk’s optimistic projections for FSD have been a recurring theme since as early as 2016, and he hasn’t shied away from admitting his past over-optimism. On Tuesday, he reiterated that he would be “shocked” if Tesla can’t deliver unsupervised FSD by 2025.
“Given the current trajectory, it appears that unsupervised FSD could exceed human driving capabilities, potentially by the end of the year,” Musk stated. He added, “I would be shocked if we cannot do it next year. Next year seems highly probable to me.”
### Past Promises
Musk has often forecasted Tesla’s journey towards complete autonomy. For instance, in 2016, he predicted that Tesla would demonstrate a full end-to-end autonomous drive across the United States by 2017, and that cars could be summoned coast-to-coast by 2018. As of now, these predictions remain unfulfilled, leaving stakeholders skeptical yet hopeful about the latest deadlines.
### Global FSD Approvals
Not limiting his ambitions to the United States, Musk plans to obtain FSD regulatory approval in Europe and China by the year’s end. This means Tesla’s drive for autonomy is being pursued on a global scale.
### Pressure on Tesla Engineers
The urgency to solve self-driving technology has turned up the pressure on Tesla engineers, especially with the upcoming launch of the company’s robotaxi service. Initially scheduled for an August 8th reveal, the robotaxi unveiling was pushed to October 10th to permit additional prototyping time. However, this service won’t offer public rides until unsupervised FSD is market-ready. As of now, Tesla’s timeline remains—this year maybe, next year definitely.
Tesla is hurtling towards a significant milestone with its FSD capabilities. Whether Musk’s latest predictions for unsupervised autonomy will finally materialize or join his list of optimistic goals, only time will tell. Meanwhile, stakeholders and the automotive industry keenly wait for Tesla’s next move.
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William Kouch, Editor of Automotive.fyi
